Hurricane LANE

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HURRICANE LANE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122012
200 AM PDT MON SEP 17 2012
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LANE HAS EVOLVED INTO A COMPACT CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER FULLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE MASS. MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO INCREASED IN
ORGANIZATION SINCE LATE YESTERDAY. DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED
TO A CONSENSUS 4.0 FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND RECENT AMSU INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON THE BASIS OF THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS RAISED TO 65 KT. LANE IS
APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT AND SHOULD BE OVER SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER WATER WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH LIMITS THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. THE COLDER WATERS AND A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 36 HOURS SHOULD HASTEN
WEAKENING...AND LANE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS ONE...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH FSSE/LGEM MODEL OUTPUT.
 
RECENT CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE HEADING HAS CONTINUED TO SHIFT
TO THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/08.  LANE
SHOULD BE STEERED GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
INTO A WEAKNESS ALONG 130W DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER 48
HOURS...THE TRACK SHOULD BEND SHARPLY TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN
WEST-SOUTHWEST AS LANE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW.  BASED LARGELY ON THE MORE POLEWARD INITIAL MOTION...THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT DURING THE
FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE FORECAST...BUT LIES ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...TO THE WEST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/0900Z 15.9N 126.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  17/1800Z 17.0N 126.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  18/0600Z 18.6N 127.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1800Z 20.0N 128.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0600Z 20.7N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  20/0600Z 20.9N 132.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0600Z 20.0N 136.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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