Hurricane DANIEL

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HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2012
 
DANIEL IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
IS BECOMING MORE ASYMMETRIC AND EXHIBITING WARMER CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE SAB AND TAFB DVORAK FIXES HAVE
DROPPED TO 3.5/4.0. LIKEWISE...THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
INTENSITY ESTIMATE HAS DECREASED TO ABOUT 60 KT. THUS THE INTENSITY
IS SET TO 65 KT...MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH.

DANIEL IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST. THIS RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND PREVENT SIGNIFICANT
POLEWARD MOTION OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL
TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE WESTWARD TREK OF DANIEL
AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

DANIEL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN FOR ABOUT THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS IT
PROGRESSES OVER COOL 24-25C WATERS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS
VERY LOW. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OUT OF THE NORTH AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. IT IS LIKELY THAT
THE COMBINATION OF STABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND MORE HOSTILE VERTICAL
SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE DANIEL TO LOSE ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...IF NOT SOONER. THE GLOBAL MODELS
LOSE THE VORTEX COMPLETELY BY DAY FIVE AND DISSIPATION IS INDICATED
AT THAT TIME. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS
STATISTICAL SCHEME AND QUITE SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
AN 1806Z ASCAT SATELLITE PASS ASSISTED WITH THE WIND RADII ANALYSIS
FOR DANIEL.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 15.4N 130.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  10/0600Z 15.5N 133.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1800Z 15.5N 136.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/0600Z 15.5N 139.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  11/1800Z 15.5N 142.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  12/1800Z 15.5N 147.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  13/1800Z 15.5N 154.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER LANDSEA
 
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