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Tropical Storm TONY


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TROPICAL STORM TONY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
500 AM AST THU OCT 25 2012
 
MET-9 AND GOES-13 IMAGERY INDICATE THAT TONY IS FINALLY SHOWING
SIGNS OF WEAKENING.  CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND THE CLOUD PATTERN
IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED.  THE DVORAK SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ALSO REFLECT THIS TREND...AND SO DOES THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WHICH IS LOWERED TO 40 KT.  CONVERSELY...THE COLD AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM A MID-LATITUDE
LOW OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE AFFECTED THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO CLASSIFY
TONY AS A POST-TROPICAL LOW.  FURTHERMORE...THE SOUTHWESTERLIES
HAVE NOT SUBSTANTIALLY SEPARATED THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FROM THE
CONVECTIVE CANOPY...ALTHOUGH A COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS HAS WEAKENED THE DEEP CONVECTION. CONSEQUENTLY...TONY WILL
REMAIN A TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST... HOWEVER...WILL STILL CALL FOR TONY TO COMPLETE
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION LATER TODAY AS A MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST...AND DISSIPATE IN 3 DAYS.  A STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...FURTHER INTERACTION WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAROCLINIC SYSTEM...AND COLDER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CERTAINLY HASTEN THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS...070/20.  TONY IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO...WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED.  BEYOND 36
HOURS...THE POST-TROPICAL LOW SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE PERIPHERAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH ATLANTIC.
THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND AGREES WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF AND UKMET GLOBAL
MODELS.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 30.4N  38.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 31.5N  35.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/0600Z 32.5N  31.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  26/1800Z 33.4N  29.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/0600Z 34.4N  27.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/0600Z 37.0N  26.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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