Tropical Depression NINETEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192012
1100 PM AST MON OCT 22 2012
 
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THIS EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS MAINLY CONFINED TO BROKEN BANDS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE
T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND 2.3/33 KT FROM
UW-CIMSS ADT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
HELD AT 30 KT. 

THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF FAIRLY LOW WIND SHEAR
AND OVER WARM WATER...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN SIMILAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...STRENGTHENING SEEMS
LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS AIDS DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO INTERACT WITH A
COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO A
POST-TROPICAL LOW OVER COOLER WATER IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POST-TROPICAL SYSTEM OPENING INTO A TROUGH OR
BECOMING ABSORBED BY A MUCH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THAT SCENARIO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN A RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST
AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD CLOSER TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTER
THAT TIME...A FASTER EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/0300Z 23.0N  51.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 24.3N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 26.0N  50.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 27.3N  48.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  25/0000Z 28.3N  45.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  26/0000Z 31.2N  38.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  27/0000Z 35.0N  31.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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