Hurricane SANDY
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0300 UTC THU OCT 25 2012
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 1 4 5 10
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 4 8 14 14 20
TROPICAL STORM 34 43 58 56 57 57 51
HURRICANE 66 56 37 35 26 25 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 60 46 31 27 21 20 17
HUR CAT 2 4 7 4 6 3 4 1
HUR CAT 3 1 2 2 2 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 65KT 65KT 60KT 60KT 60KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13)
OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12)
WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 5(20)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16)
MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 3(11)
MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 8(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 8(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
MIAMI FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11)
MARATHON FL 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
KEY WEST FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 14(36) 3(39) 1(40) X(40)
GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 28(30) 26(56) 2(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X 5( 5) 15(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 2 33(35) 6(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
ANDROS 50 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
ANDROS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GREAT EXUMA 34 14 82(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GREAT EXUMA 50 1 70(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
SAN SALVADOR 34 4 53(57) 3(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MAYAGUANA 34 4 6(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
GRAND TURK 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CAMAGUEY 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
KINGSTON 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
LES CAYES 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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