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Tropical Storm SANDY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM SANDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182012               
1500 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       2       4       6       7       8
TROP DEPRESSION  2       3       6      16      13      12      15
TROPICAL STORM  85      52      46      56      55      56      53
HURRICANE       14      45      46      24      25      25      24
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      39      36      19      21      20      21
HUR CAT 2        1       5       7       4       3       4       2
HUR CAT 3        1       2       3       1       1       1       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       1       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    65KT    70KT    60KT    60KT    60KT    60KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   X( 7)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)   X(10)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   9(23)   1(24)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)
GRAND BAHAMA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  29(32)   8(40)   X(40)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   3(13)   X(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  28(36)   5(41)   X(41)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   1(13)   X(13)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  16(18)  34(52)   3(55)   X(55)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  15(18)   1(19)   X(19)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  27(36)   4(40)   X(40)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   2(12)   X(12)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   9(17)   1(18)   X(18)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)   9(10)  17(27)   8(35)   X(35)   X(35)
CAMAGUEY       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   X(11)   X(11)
CAMAGUEY       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   6( 6)  23(29)  14(43)   2(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTEGO BAY    34  1  17(18)  28(46)   4(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)
MONTEGO BAY    50  X   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
MONTEGO BAY    64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
KINGSTON       34  2  50(52)  28(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
KINGSTON       50  X  12(12)  29(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
KINGSTON       64  X   2( 2)  12(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LES CAYES      34  1   6( 7)  11(18)   2(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
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