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Hurricane NADINE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  74
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 30 2012
 
NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE RAGGED...AND
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN WARMING. THERE HAS ALSO
BEEN AN EROSION OF DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE CIRCULATION...
WITH THE BULK OF WHAT REMAINS PIVOTING FROM WEST TO SOUTH AROUND
THE CENTER. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY DECREASING...AND A BLEND
OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS GIVES AN INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KT.
A SLOW BUT STEADY DECAY OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS AS NADINE ENCOUNTERS GRADUALLY INCREASING SHEAR AND THE
COLD WAKE THAT THE CYCLONE GENERATED YESTERDAY. FROM 24-72 HOURS...
A MARKED INCREASE IN NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATERS COULD HASTEN THE WEAKENING TREND. PROHIBITIVELY HIGH
SHEAR AFTER 72 HOURS MIGHT RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE STORM...
AND NADINE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOONER...IN 96
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE OUTPUT.
 
NADINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW DOWN WHILE IN THE PROCESS OF MAKING A
CYCLONIC LOOP...AND THE SHORT-TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
230/06. THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC SHOULD CAUSE HEIGHTS TO RISE NORTH OF NADINE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN NADINE
SLOWING FURTHER AS IT HEADS BACK SOUTHWARD AND THEN SOUTH-
EASTWARD. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE WEAKENING STORM SHOULD TURN EASTWARD
AND NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ACCELERATES AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE
MOVING OUT OF ATLANTIC CANADA. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST SINCE THE LAST CYCLE...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND IN THE GUIDANCE TOWARD THE RIGHT...BUT
IS NOT AS FAR SOUTH AND EAST AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 36.7N  39.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 36.3N  39.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 35.7N  39.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  02/1200Z 35.2N  37.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/0000Z 35.4N  36.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  04/0000Z 38.0N  31.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  05/0000Z 44.6N  26.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  06/0000Z 50.0N  27.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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