Hurricane NADINE

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HURRICANE NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  71
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
500 AM AST SUN SEP 30 2012
 
NADINE APPEARS TO HAVE GAINED A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH THIS MORNING.
GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AROUND THE RAGGED EYE DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T4.5/77 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...AND ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS ARE 4.7/82 KT. BASED ON
THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 80 KT. 

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE STEERING CURRENTS...HOWEVER...ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS NADINE BECOMES TRAPPED BETWEEN A PAIR OF
RIDGES TO ITS EAST AND WEST AND A TROUGH TO ITS NORTH. THIS COMPLEX
PATTERN WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE HURRICANE TO MAKE A CYCLONIC LOOP OR
MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...A LARGE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE NADINE TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DURING THAT TIME. AT
DAYS 4 AND 5...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HOW
NADINE INTERACTS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
ANTICIPATED. AFTER THAT...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...
FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE...AS THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE WHEN THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEARS THE CYCLONE. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS FAIRLY
CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS. MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW NADINE
TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 4 TO 5 DAYS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 36.6N  37.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 37.2N  38.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 36.9N  39.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 36.1N  39.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 35.4N  38.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 35.4N  36.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 38.5N  32.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 46.0N  28.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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