Hurricane MICHAEL

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 AM AST FRI SEP 07 2012

THERE HAVE ONLY BEEN SMALL CHANGES WITH MICHAEL DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT WHILE THE EYE HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT OBSCURED WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS...THE EYEWALL
CONVECTION HAS GOTTEN A LITTLE DEEPER.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
BETWEEN 90-100 KT...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY
KEPT AT 90 KT.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENTLY SHOWING MICHAEL
SLOWLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO LIGHT OR MODERATE
WESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY COOLING SSTS.  THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS
THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PREDICTION WHICH IS A BIT LOWER THAN THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS.  A COMBINATION OF COLD WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR
SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 5 DAYS.  
 
THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 3 KT.  THIS
GENERAL TRACK AND SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WHILE WEAK RIDGING PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THE RIDGE
SHOULD REBUILD TO THE EAST OF MICHAEL IN A FEW DAYS...CAUSING THE
CYCLONE TO TURN NORTHWARD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT
AT LONG RANGE...PARTIALLY DUE TO A POSSIBLE INTERACTION OF MICHAEL
WITH LESLIE AS THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  FOR NOW...THE NEW FORECAST WILL ASSUME THE
CYCLONE WILL STAY MOSTLY SEPARATE FROM LESLIE AND ENDS UP ONLY A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.  IF THE LATEST GFS MODEL IS
CORRECT...THIS TRACK FORECAST IS TOO SLOW AND NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS
WOULD HAVE TO BE MADE LATER TODAY.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/1500Z 31.2N  41.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/0000Z 31.5N  41.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/1200Z 32.0N  41.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  09/0000Z 32.7N  42.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  09/1200Z 33.3N  43.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  10/1200Z 34.7N  44.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  11/1200Z 39.5N  47.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/1200Z 48.5N  46.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
NNNN