Hurricane MICHAEL

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HURRICANE MICHAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132012
1100 PM AST WED SEP 05 2012

AN EYE HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGES...AND SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 55 TO 77 KT.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PROBABLY CONSERVATIVELY...TO 65 KT...
MAKING MICHAEL THE SEVENTH HURRICANE OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED OVER ALL BUT THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE
TRAVERSING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 27.5-28.0 DEG C FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  ASSUMING THAT MICHAEL WILL BE ABLE TO AVOID THE
UNFAVORABLE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE
LESLIE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD OCCUR.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
MICHAEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD...OR 050/6...APPARENTLY DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ITS
NORTH.  THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SWING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM
THE HURRICANE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING MICHAEL BEHIND IN A
REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.  A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED IN THE 2- TO 5-DAY TIME FRAME. 
THERE IS QUITE A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST
TRACKS...WITH THE GFS TAKING MICHAEL SUBSTANTIALLY FARTHER NORTH
AND EAST BY DAY 5 THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST IS NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...ALBEIT JUST A
TAD SLOWER.  THIS IS USUALLY THE BEST STRATEGY WHEN CONFRONTED WITH
A LARGE MODEL SPREAD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0300Z 29.3N  42.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 29.8N  41.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 30.5N  41.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 31.0N  41.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 31.5N  42.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 32.7N  43.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 34.0N  44.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 35.5N  46.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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