Tropical Storm ISAAC

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TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
0300 UTC WED AUG 22 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE AND THE SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND ST. MARTIN
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...AND ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS IN HISPANIOLA AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
ISAAC.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  55.6W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  55.6W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  54.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 15.8N  58.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 16.2N  61.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.7N  64.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 17.1N  67.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.3N  72.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 20.5N  76.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 23.0N  79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N  55.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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