Tropical Depression ISAAC

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092012
400 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS INDICATE THAT
ISAAC IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 340/11 KT. ISAAC WILL
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND MOVE
ACROSS ARKANSAS AND INTO MISSOURI. BY DAY 3...THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC
SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN EASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO WEAK MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND LIES JUST TO THE RIGHT OF
THE CONSENSUS MODELS TCVA AND TV15.
 
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 30 KT...BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITY DATA. ISAAC WILL CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN OVER LAND AND IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY...IF NOT SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
DECAY-SHIPS STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODEL.
 
HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE ON FRIDAY. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON ISAAC ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34 KWNH...BEGINNING AT
10 PM CDT.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/2100Z 32.7N  92.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 12H  31/0600Z 34.0N  93.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 24H  31/1800Z 36.0N  93.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 36H  01/0600Z 37.7N  92.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/1800Z 38.6N  91.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/1800Z 39.5N  88.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  03/1800Z 39.5N  85.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  04/1800Z 38.5N  82.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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