Hurricane GORDON

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HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL082012
500 PM AST SUN AUG 19 2012
 
GORDON CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...AS DEEP CONVECTION IS ERODING
SOUTH OF THE CENTER AND THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED.  HOWEVER...THE EYE HAS STILL BEEN APPARENT ON RECENT
INFRARED IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 75 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  STEADY WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DUE TO COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR...AND  THE
NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE.  MODEL FIELDS AND FSU
PHASE SPACE DIGRAMS SUGGEST THAT GORDON WILL BE POST-TROPICAL BY 36
HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN SHEAR APART AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 96 HOURS...IF
NOT SOONER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/18.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SCENARIO OF GORDON INTERACTING WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST...WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE A BIT MORE OF A POLEWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION AND A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AFTER 36
HOURS...AS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DECOUPLES...A SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT
IS EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  19/2100Z 36.1N  27.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  20/0600Z 37.3N  24.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  20/1800Z 38.8N  21.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  21/0600Z 39.2N  19.2W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  21/1800Z 39.2N  18.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  22/1800Z 39.0N  17.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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