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Tropical Storm DEBBY


ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL042012               
2100 UTC SUN JUN 24 2012                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       3       7      20      36      45
TROP DEPRESSION  3      12      15      14      22      30      29
TROPICAL STORM  90      77      64      53      43      31      25
HURRICANE        7      10      18      25      15       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6       8      15      21      13       2       2
HUR CAT 2        1       1       2       4       2       1       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       1       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    50KT    55KT    60KT    60KT    40KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)   X(11)
 
MAYPORT NS     34  3   3( 6)   4(10)   3(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  4   4( 8)   4(12)   4(16)   4(20)   2(22)   X(22)
 
DAYTONA BEACH  34  4   3( 7)   3(10)   3(13)   4(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 
ORLANDO FL     34  5   3( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   3(18)   2(20)   X(20)
 
COCOA BEACH FL 34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
PATRICK AFB    34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
FT PIERCE FL   34  2   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 
W PALM BEACH   34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)
 
KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)
 
MARCO ISLAND   34  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 
FT MYERS FL    34  4   2( 6)   3( 9)   3(12)   4(16)   2(18)   X(18)
 
VENICE FL      34  9   3(12)   5(17)   4(21)   5(26)   2(28)   X(28)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TAMPA FL       34 16   6(22)   6(28)   5(33)   5(38)   X(38)   1(39)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34 33   9(42)   7(49)   5(54)   4(58)   1(59)   X(59)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 34  16(50)   7(57)   5(62)   5(67)   X(67)   X(67)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
ST MARKS FL    34 48  12(60)   7(67)   4(71)   3(74)   X(74)   X(74)
ST MARKS FL    50  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   4(11)   1(12)   X(12)
ST MARKS FL    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
APALACHICOLA   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
APALACHICOLA   50  3   9(12)   5(17)   5(22)   5(27)   1(28)   X(28)
APALACHICOLA   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 12  10(22)   7(29)   4(33)   4(37)   X(37)   X(37)
GFMX 290N 850W 64  2   2( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  2   8(10)   5(15)   4(19)   5(24)   1(25)   X(25)
PANAMA CITY FL 64  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  2   5( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   4(19)   2(21)   X(21)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  2   5( 7)   6(13)   2(15)   5(20)   2(22)   1(23)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  8  12(20)  12(32)   4(36)   6(42)   2(44)   1(45)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  2   4( 6)   5(11)   4(15)   5(20)   1(21)   X(21)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MOBILE AL      34  2   5( 7)   8(15)   6(21)   6(27)   2(29)   X(29)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  1   3( 4)   6(10)   5(15)   5(20)   2(22)   1(23)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
STENNIS SC     34  1   2( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   5(17)   2(19)   X(19)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  1   2( 3)   5( 8)   5(13)   6(19)   2(21)   1(22)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   2( 4)   6(10)   6(16)   7(23)   2(25)   1(26)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  1   1( 2)   3( 5)   4( 9)   4(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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