Tropical Storm BERYL

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TROPICAL STORM BERYL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022012
1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012
 
 
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS IN BERYL FOR SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER
THIS EVENING AND REPORTED PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 80 KT...AND A
RAIN-INFLATED PEAK SFMR WIND OF 62 KT. CORRECTING THE SFMR WIND FOR
THE RAIN YIELDS 55 KT. IN THIS CASE...THE SURFACE TO FLIGHT-LEVEL
WIND SPEED RATIO WAS A LITTLE LOWER THAN NORMAL. EARLIER DOPPLER
RADAR DATA ALSO INDICATED WINDS AT 5000-6000 FT AS STRONG AS THOSE
MEASURED BY THE AIRCRAFT AT FLIGHT-LEVEL. HOWEVER...THE PLANE
MEASURED PEAK SFMR WINDS OF ONLY 50-55 KT WITHIN THIS
REGION...SUGGESTING THAT EARLIER REDUCTION FACTOR WAS REASONABLE.
SINCE THAT TIME...THE STRONG DOPPLER WIND SPEED ESTIMATES WINDS
HAVE DECREASED WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT ABOUT
3.5. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT BERYL IS NO LONGER
INTENSIFYING...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 60 KNOTS. THE
LARGE CIRCULATION OF BERYL IS ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...LEAVING NO TIME FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. IN
FACT...SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY
INLAND...WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
DSHIPS MODEL WHILE BERYL IS OVER LAND. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE WHEN BERYL EMERGES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT IT
SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN ABOUT 4 DAYS.

RADAR FIXES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BERYL WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UNITED STATES AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS
FLOW PATTERN SHOULD CARRY BERYL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
ATLANTIC UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  28/0300Z 30.2N  81.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 30.3N  82.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
 24H  29/0000Z 30.5N  82.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  29/1200Z 31.2N  82.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0000Z 32.0N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  31/0000Z 34.5N  75.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  01/0000Z 37.5N  66.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0000Z 40.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA/KIMBERLAIN
 
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