Tropical Depression FOUR-E
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011
1500 UTC MON JUL 18 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X 2 3 7
TROP DEPRESSION 14 5 2 1 2 2 15
TROPICAL STORM 84 76 39 15 6 13 53
HURRICANE 2 19 59 84 90 82 25
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 17 44 40 20 31 21
HUR CAT 2 X 2 11 25 26 25 3
HUR CAT 3 X X 4 14 30 20 1
HUR CAT 4 X X 1 4 12 6 X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X 2 X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 55KT 70KT 85KT 105KT 100KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 7(23)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 6(21)
SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14)
LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
LA PAZ 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
CULICAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
CULICAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CULICAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
SAN BLAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14)
P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) 1(21)
P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5)
P VALLARTA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 8(31) 2(33)
BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10)
BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27) 1(28)
MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25) 2(27) 1(28)
L CARDENAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
L CARDENAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 16(22) 1(23) X(23)
ZIHUATANEJO 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 7(17) X(17) X(17)
ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
P ANGEL 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
HUATULCO 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 32(35) 7(42)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 8(16)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21)
ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7)
ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER STEWART
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