Tropical Storm DORA

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TROPICAL STORM DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
1500 UTC TUE JUL 19 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  97.1W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  60SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N  97.1W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  96.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 12.6N  99.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 13.7N 101.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.0N 104.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.1N 105.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 18.1N 108.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 20.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.0N 113.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N  97.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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