Hurricane DORA

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HURRICANE DORA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2011
 
WHILE AN EYE HAS NOT BEEN APPARENT IN RECENT GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY
...THERE HAS BEEN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF DORA IN THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF
77 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB AT 0600 UTC.  DORA WILL BE IN  
AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...WITH VERY WARM SSTS AND SHEAR OF AROUND 10 KT
OR LESS.  AFTER THAT TIME...DORA WILL MOVE ACROSS A SHARP SST
GRADIENT INTO COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING LATE IN THE PERIOD.  IN THE SHORT
TERM THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL MODEL...AND SHOWS
A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KT IN 36 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE NHC
FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KNOTS
...AS DORA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND
MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...DORA WILL GRADUALLY
SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.  MUCH OF THE TRACK
GUIDANCE FOR THIS CYCLE HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE LEFT...INCLUDING
THE GFS...GFDL....AND HWRF MODELS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN NUDGED TO THE LEFT AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH 48 HOURS AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS AFTER THAT
TIME.  GIVEN THE LARGE CYCLE-TO-CYCLE VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK
GUIDANCE AND THE EXTENT OF 34-KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PART OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO.  BASED ON THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND PAST NHC
FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS A 35 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURRING SOMEWHERE IN THE WATCH AREA.  DORA
COULD ALSO THREATEN THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA IN 60 TO
72 HOURS. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 14.1N 101.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 15.1N 103.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  21/0600Z 16.4N 105.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  21/1800Z 17.5N 107.1W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  22/0600Z 18.6N 108.4W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  23/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  25/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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