Tropical Storm PHILIPPE

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL172011
500 AM AST SUN OCT 02 2011
 
SINCE THE ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0100 UTC...WHICH INDICATED THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS OF PHILIPPE WERE NEAR 60 KT...THE OVERALL CLOUD
PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT.  PHILIPPE IS A STRONGLY SHEARED
TROPICAL STORM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. LATEST MICROWAVE DATA
INDICATE THE STRUCTURE OF THE INNER CORE...ALBEIT SHEARED...REMAINS
FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED.   

PHILIPPE IS GRADUALLY TURNING WESTWARD...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9. A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION AT ABOUT THE
SAME SPEED IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE STORM
REMAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. IN
THREE TO FOUR DAYS...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED TO THE LEFT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FEW DISCUSSIONS...
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS GREATER THAN NORMAL.

ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 40 KT...ACCORDING TO
THE SHIPS MODEL...IT HAS YET TO CAUSE PHILIPPE TO WEAKEN. THE
INTENSITY MODELS UNANIMOUSLY CALL FOR A GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING
THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS AS THE SHEAR REMAINS STRONG. AFTER 
THREE DAYS...HOWEVER...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE
RESTRENGTHENING AS THE SHEAR DECREASES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...
LIKE THE TRACK FORECAST...THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN. THE STRENGTH OF PHILIPPE AT THE LATTER FORECAST TIMES
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH HOW THE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS A WEAK SYSTEM BECOMING
ABSORBED ALONG THE FRONT BY DAY 5. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL
MODEL SHOWS PHILIPPE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE...PERHAPS DUE TO
BAROCLINIC ENHANCEMENTS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BETWEEN
THE EXTREMES AND FOLLOWS THE OVERALL TREND IN THE GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 25.6N  50.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 25.8N  52.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 25.7N  54.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 25.6N  56.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  04/0600Z 25.6N  58.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/0600Z 26.5N  61.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  06/0600Z 28.5N  61.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
120H  07/0600Z 32.0N  56.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
 
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