Tropical Storm OPHELIA
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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0300 UTC WED SEP 21 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 3 4 6 11 14
TROP DEPRESSION 11 15 18 20 22 27 30
TROPICAL STORM 86 75 69 62 58 53 47
HURRICANE 2 9 10 14 15 10 9
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 8 8 12 12 8 8
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 2 1 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 45KT 40KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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