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Tropical Storm NATE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM NATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011               
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2011                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       1       1       2       6      22
TROP DEPRESSION  2       6       7       7       7      12      22
TROPICAL STORM  85      76      64      53      49      48      38
HURRICANE       13      17      29      40      43      34      19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       12      15      25      30      30      26      14
HUR CAT 2        1       2       3       7       9       6       4
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       3       3       2       1
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   55KT    55KT    60KT    65KT    70KT    70KT    70KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   5(15)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   5(20)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   4( 9)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   5(12)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   8(22)
GFMX 280N 950W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)
PORT O CONNOR  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   9(20)   8(28)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
GFMX 270N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   8(10)  11(21)   7(28)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   7(11)  16(27)  11(38)   7(45)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   3(14)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   7(10)  10(20)   5(25)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   9(13)   8(21)   5(26)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   7(13)   7(20)   2(22)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  2   2( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   4(13)   5(18)   3(21)
 
FRONTERA MX    34 36   6(42)   2(44)   1(45)   2(47)   1(48)   1(49)
 
MERIDA MX      34  9  13(22)   6(28)   3(31)   4(35)   1(36)   2(38)
MERIDA MX      50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  1   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BELIZE         34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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