Tropical Storm MARIA
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 13 2011
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 1 2 6 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 3 10 7 9 19 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 90 78 69 64 59 NA NA
HURRICANE 8 12 23 24 16 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 8 10 20 21 13 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 55KT 55KT 50KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) X(31) X(31)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) X(16)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) X(25) X(25)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 13(13) 30(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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