Tropical Storm MARIA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0300 UTC MON SEP 12 2011
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 1 2 2 2 4 8
TROP DEPRESSION 3 10 14 12 7 11 20
TROPICAL STORM 90 77 70 62 50 56 54
HURRICANE 7 12 14 24 42 30 19
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 11 12 19 30 24 17
HUR CAT 2 1 1 2 4 9 5 2
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 3 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 50KT 50KT 55KT 65KT 60KT 55KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23)
HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26)
CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 20(25)
ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19)
BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17)
PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19)
EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20)
SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 15(30)
SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16)
HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 20(44) X(44)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
NNNN
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