Tropical Storm MARIA
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TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1500 UTC SAT SEP 10 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 8 13 11 6 4 5
TROP DEPRESSION 60 51 46 34 21 11 15
TROPICAL STORM 37 39 38 48 58 55 54
HURRICANE 1 2 3 6 16 31 26
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 2 5 13 24 22
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 2 5 3
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 2 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 30KT 30KT 35KT 45KT 55KT 55KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
SAINT THOMAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 25 X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
ANTIGUA 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BROWN
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