Tropical Storm MARIA
ZCZC MIAPWSAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
0900 UTC FRI SEP 09 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 4 5 5 4 3 3
TROP DEPRESSION 33 38 26 20 14 8 7
TROPICAL STORM 64 55 63 62 57 49 45
HURRICANE 1 3 6 13 25 41 45
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 2 5 11 20 30 31
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 2 4 8 10
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 3 3
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X 1
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 55KT 65KT 70KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) 13(29)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 17(23) 6(29)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 15(31) 3(34)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)
CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) 1(19)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11)
PONCE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 8(22) 1(23) X(23)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PONCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 18(22) 8(30) 1(31) X(31)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) 13(13) 21(34) 5(39) X(39) X(39)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 15(30) 2(32) 1(33) X(33)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X 4( 4) 34(38) 9(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X 12(12) 31(43) 4(47) X(47) X(47) X(47)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
BARBUDA 34 1 19(20) 23(43) 3(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 1 25(26) 22(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
ANTIGUA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GUADELOUPE 34 1 33(34) 11(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46)
GUADELOUPE 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
AVES 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13)
DOMINICA 34 1 19(20) 5(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
DOMINICA 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
MARTINIQUE 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN
NHC on Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
NHC Blog: