Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 06 2011
 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  37.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N  37.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N  36.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 12.3N  39.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.9N  43.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.7N  47.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  25SE  25SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.5N  50.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  20SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  20SE  25SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.0N  62.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N  37.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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