Tropical Depression TEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102011
500 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
 
RECENT IR IMAGERY AND AN 0350 UTC AMSR-E PASS SUGGEST THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...AND THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
SOMEWHAT ELONGATED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS APPEARS
TO BE DUE TO CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AS
ANALYZED BY UW-CIMMS AND THE GFS FIELDS IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT HOLDING THE INTENSITY AT
30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE
AND THE FACT THAT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFDL
AND HWRF SHOW LITTLE INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND SHOWS ONLY A BROAD PEAK AT
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...INCREASING
SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 WITH THE
CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. IS IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT VISIBLE
IMAGERY WILL REVEAL THAT THE CENTER IS NO LONGER WELL DEFINED...AND
IF SO THE CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY.
 
SINCE A CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY...UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL
POSITION REMAINS HIGH. BASED ON SATELLITE FIXES AND CONTINUITY...THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/8. WHILE OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED...A TREND TOWARD A WEAKER CYCLONE
SUGGESTS THAT LESS OF A POLEWARD TURN INTO THE MID-LEVEL WEAKNESS
WILL OCCUR DURING THE FIRST 2 OR 3 DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE NHC
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
TOWARD THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE
SHALLOW BAM AT DAY 4.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 14.5N  33.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 15.1N  34.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 15.9N  35.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 16.8N  36.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 17.8N  37.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 19.5N  39.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 21.0N  41.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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