Tropical Storm BRET

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TROPICAL STORM BRET FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
2100 UTC MON JUL 18 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS FOR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
NONE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  77.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N  77.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N  77.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 29.2N  76.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 30.4N  75.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 31.5N  74.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 33.0N  72.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.5N  67.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 39.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 43.0N  52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N  77.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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