Tropical Depression TWO-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022010
830 AM PDT WED JUN 16 2010
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1209 UTC
INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC FOR THE LAST DAY OR TWO HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED.  GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER FOR 12-18 HOURS...THE TAFB CLASSIFICATION OF
T1.5 AND AN IMPROVED DEFINITION OF THE CIRCULATION...ADVISORIES ARE
BEING INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED IN A MONSOON-LIKE ENVIRONMENT DOMINATED
BY A BROAD WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW- TO MID-LEVELS AND A EASTERLY
FLOW ALOFT.  THIS PATTERN YIELDS A SLOW DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW... AND
HELPS TO EXPLAIN WHY THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED LITTLE.  THIS IS BORNE
OUT IN RECENT CENTER FIXES WHICH GIVE LITTLE MOTION...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BUILDING WESTWARD WHICH SHOULD STEER THE
DEPRESSION ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS.  HOWEVER...THIS FORECAST IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE UNCERTAIN INTERACTION OF THE DEPRESSION WITH A
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TO THE WEST.

THE APPEARANCE OF THE DEPRESSION SUGGESTS THAT IT IS SUBJECT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT THE
SHEAR IS LIGHT.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE MAY BE UNDERESTIMATING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE LOWER
LGEM GUIDANCE. 
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/1530Z 14.8N  95.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     17/0000Z 14.8N  96.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/1200Z 15.0N  97.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     18/0000Z 15.2N  98.0W    35 KT
 48HR VT     18/1200Z 15.5N  99.3W    40 KT
 72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.9N 101.2W    45 KT
 96HR VT     20/1200Z 16.0N 103.5W    45 KT
120HR VT     21/1200Z 16.5N 106.5W    45 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN
 
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