Tropical Storm PAULA
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TROPICAL STORM PAULA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182010
1500 UTC THU OCT 14 2010
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PAULA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X 2 8 11 35 NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION 4 17 22 19 37 NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 90 73 60 53 26 NA NA
HURRICANE 6 8 10 16 3 NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 6 7 9 13 3 NA NA
HUR CAT 2 X 1 1 2 X NA NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X 1 X NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 50KT 40KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
W PALM BEACH 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MIAMI FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MARATHON FL 34 X 5( 5) 6(11) 4(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17)
MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 34 1 9(10) 6(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21)
KEY WEST FL 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ANDROS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HAVANA 34 39 25(64) 4(68) 2(70) X(70) X(70) X(70)
HAVANA 50 6 10(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
HAVANA 64 1 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ISLE OF PINES 34 2 9(11) 5(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X 7( 7) 20(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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