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Hurricane PAULA


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HURRICANE PAULA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL182010
0900 UTC TUE OCT 12 2010

CORRECTED TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE BELOW
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO CABO CATOCHE...
INCLUDING COZUMEL
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF PUNTA
GRUESA
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM CABO CATOCHE TO SAN FELIPE
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  85.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N  85.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  85.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 18.7N  86.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 20.1N  86.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.0N  86.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.5N  86.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT...105NE 110SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.5N  85.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N  84.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 21.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N  85.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN
 
 
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