Tropical Storm MATTHEW

ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4          
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152010               
0900 UTC FRI SEP 24 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       8      15      22      30      36
TROP DEPRESSION  3      10      25      21      19      13      12
TROPICAL STORM  90      78      58      47      42      34      28
HURRICANE        7      11       9      17      17      23      25
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6       9       7      13      13      16      16
HUR CAT 2        X       1       1       3       3       5       6
HUR CAT 3        1       1       1       1       1       2       2
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    50KT    50KT    60KT    35KT    30KT    25KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
 
FRONTERA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   8(15)   2(17)
FRONTERA MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
FRONTERA MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   8(16)   2(18)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
MERIDA MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   6(10)   8(18)   2(20)
COZUMEL MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)
COZUMEL MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)
 
BELIZE         34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)  20(27)  11(38)   2(40)   1(41)
BELIZE         50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   6(12)   2(14)   X(14)
BELIZE         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)
 
PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   9(13)  11(24)   5(29)   X(29)
PUERTO BARRIOS 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
PUERTO BARRIOS 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
GUANAJA        34  X  13(13)  28(41)   9(50)   3(53)   2(55)   X(55)
GUANAJA        50  X   1( 1)  13(14)   4(18)   2(20)   1(21)   1(22)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
PUERTO CABEZAS 34  3  16(19)   1(20)   1(21)   1(22)   2(24)   X(24)
PUERTO CABEZAS 50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANDRES     34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)
 
HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)
 
CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   3( 8)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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