Hurricane KARL

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HURRICANE KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
2100 UTC THU SEP 16 2010
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FROM PALMA
SOLA SOUTHWARD TO VERACRUZ.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH
OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ TO CABO ROJO
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ
* THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTH OF VERACRUZ TO PUNTA EL LAGARTO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS
...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  93.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 55NE  30SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  93.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N  93.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.7N  94.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.7N  96.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.6N  97.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  25SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.5N  99.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 102.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N  93.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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