Tropical Storm KARL

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TROPICAL STORM KARL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132010
1000 AM CDT WED SEP 15 2010

THE CENTER OF KARL MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AT ABOUT 1245 UTC.  BEFORE LANDFALL...
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED A CENTRAL
PRESSURE NEAR 991 MB WITH 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 61 KT JUST
NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM RELIABLE SFMR WINDS WERE 50-55
KT.  BASED ON THIS...THE LANDFALL INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 55 KT.
DATA FROM THE RADAR IN BELIZE CITY SHOWED THAT KARL WAS DEVELOPING
AN EYE AT LANDFALL...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE IS NO OTHER EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST IT REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH AFTER THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DEPARTED.

KARL HAS BEEN MOVING A BIT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW 280/12.  KARL REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THIS FEATURE SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO MAINLAND MEXICO.  THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS SHOWING A MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION THAN THE ECMWF...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NOGAPS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE TWO MODEL CAMPS AND LIE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
MODELS.  THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.

KARL SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  ONCE THE CENTER REACHES
WATER...THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW RE-INTENSIFICATION AS FORECAST BY
ALL GUIDANCE.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR KARL TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL IN MAINLAND MEXICO.  KARL SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER ITS
SECOND LANDFALL AND DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO
BY 120 HR.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 18.6N  88.2W    50 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 19.1N  89.7W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 20.1N  91.7W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 20.9N  93.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 21.3N  95.2W    60 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N  98.0W    75 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 21.0N 101.0W    25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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