Hurricane EARL

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HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
1100 AM AST SUN AUG 29 2010
 
...EARL EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 58.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM E OF ANTIGUA
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
AND PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES.  A
HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  EARL IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND EARL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY
TUESDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA
LATER TODAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.
 
STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.
 
RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES.  EARL IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES OVER PUERTO
RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
 
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