Hurricane EARL

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HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010

EARL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN...WITH THE EYE BECOMING INDISTINCT
IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB AT ABOUT 05Z.  THE
MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 03Z WERE 118 KT...WHILE THE
MAXIMUM SFMR WINDS NEAR THAT TIME WERE 83 KT.  A BLEND OF THESE
DATA IS USED FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT.  EARL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH 36 HR DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  HOWEVER...IT IS STILL
FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT PASSES NEAR OR OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NOVA SCOTIA.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...AND TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HR.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 015-020 AT ABOUT 16 KT.  ALL GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.  A TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS POSSIBLE AFTER 36 HR AS EARL
UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS DOWN
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET CONTINUES TO FORECAST
EARL TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CAPE COD...AND ANY MOTION TO THE LEFT OF
THE FORECAST TRACK COULD ALLOW THIS TO HAPPEN.
 
ALTHOUGH THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE CORE ARE DECREASING...EARL
CONTINUES TO BE A LARGE HURRICANE WITH THE WIND RADII EXPANDED IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT BASED ON ASCAT DATA.  THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0900Z 35.3N  74.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     03/1800Z 37.8N  72.4W    85 KT
 24HR VT     04/0600Z 41.6N  68.9W    75 KT
 36HR VT     04/1800Z 45.9N  64.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     05/0600Z 50.7N  60.0W    45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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