Tropical Depression FIVE
ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052010
0300 UTC WED AUG 11 2010
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 3 5 6 10 23 47 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 64 40 33 30 32 31 NA
TROPICAL STORM 34 53 56 53 39 20 NA
HURRICANE X 2 5 7 6 2 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 2 5 6 5 2 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X 1 1 X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 30KT 35KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
ST MARKS FL 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
APALACHICOLA 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) 1(11) X(11)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) X(10)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 5( 5) 9(14) 2(16) 4(20) 2(22) X(22)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 24(25) 9(34) 2(36) 1(37) 1(38) X(38)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
MOBILE AL 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 5(21) 6(27) 2(29) X(29)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 9(31) 6(37) 2(39) X(39)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
STENNIS SC 34 X 3( 3) 16(19) 13(32) 7(39) 2(41) X(41)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BURAS LA 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 11(37) 6(43) 2(45) X(45)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 8( 8) 15(23) 4(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 287N 884W 34 X 17(17) 23(40) 3(43) 2(45) 2(47) X(47)
GFMX 287N 884W 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
GFMX 287N 884W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 6(23) X(23)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 14(30) 10(40) 2(42) X(42)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) 7(21) 2(23) X(23)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 13(20) 11(31) 4(35) X(35)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 11(26) 3(29) X(29)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) X(11)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) X(11)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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