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Tropical Depression BONNIE


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL032010               
2100 UTC FRI JUL 23 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       3       3       8      26      47      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION 63      24      33      41      32      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  34      69      56      31      19      NA      NA
HURRICANE        X       4       4       2       1      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       3       3       2       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   30KT    40KT    35KT    25KT    20KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
FT MYERS FL    34  8   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
VENICE FL      34 11   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
TAMPA FL       34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   5( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  1  11(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  2  18(20)   X(20)   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X  16(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X  19(19)   9(28)   1(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X  42(42)   6(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X  12(12)  22(34)   2(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
MOBILE AL      50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   9( 9)  30(39)   3(42)   1(43)   X(43)   X(43)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
STENNIS SC     34  X   6( 6)  28(34)   4(38)   1(39)   X(39)   X(39)
STENNIS SC     50  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
STENNIS SC     64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   7( 7)  20(27)   2(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)
BURAS LA       50  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 287N 884W 34  X  20(20)  11(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GFMX 287N 884W 50  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)   3(21)   X(21)   X(21)
JACKSON MS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   3( 3)  20(23)   4(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   1( 1)  13(14)   5(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)   2(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
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