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Tropical Storm ALEX


ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17             
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010               
2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2010                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ALEX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR.                                        
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X      10      43      NA      NA
TROP DEPRESSION  X       1       1      35      35      NA      NA
TROPICAL STORM  51      22      30      50      21      NA      NA
HURRICANE       49      77      69       5       1      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1       47      58      51       4       1      NA      NA
HUR CAT 2        2      15      13       1       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 3        X       3       4       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X      NA      NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   65KT    75KT    75KT    40KT    25KT    NA      NA  
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GFMX 280N 930W 34  4   5( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
AUSTIN TX      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN ANTONIO TX 34  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  1   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  5   8(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  3   8(11)   7(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
CORPUS CHRISTI 34  3  10(13)  15(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  7  26(33)  11(44)   X(44)   1(45)   X(45)   X(45)
GFMX 270N 960W 50  X   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
BROWNSVILLE TX 34  7  48(55)  26(81)   2(83)   1(84)   X(84)   X(84)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50  X   9( 9)  30(39)   3(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64  X   1( 1)  12(13)   1(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34 63  33(96)   2(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)   X(98)
GFMX 250N 960W 50  3  60(63)   7(70)   1(71)   X(71)   X(71)   X(71)
GFMX 250N 960W 64  X  30(30)   6(36)   X(36)   1(37)   X(37)   X(37)
 
LA PESCO MX    34  5  28(33)  26(59)   2(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
LA PESCO MX    50  X   4( 4)  15(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
LA PESCO MX    64  X   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
TAMPICO MX     34  3   7(10)   7(17)   1(18)   X(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
TUXPAN MX      34  3   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
VERACRUZ MX    34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN                                                    
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