Hurricane RICK
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HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202009
1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS HURRICANE.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.6W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.6W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 55NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 45NE 50SE 45SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 90SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 111.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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