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Hurricane JIMENA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009               
0900 UTC TUE SEP 01 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
20.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       X       8      43      51
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       2       3      17      29      27
TROPICAL STORM   X       X      14      27      27      25      20
HURRICANE       99      99      84      70      48       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       2      31      33      21       2       1
HUR CAT 2        X      11      31      19      15       X       X
HUR CAT 3        5      49      19      15      10       X       X
HUR CAT 4       82      35       3       3       2       X       X
HUR CAT 5       13       3       X       1       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  130KT   120KT   100KT    75KT    50KT    45KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
SAN DIEGO CA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   2( 7)
 
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   3( 3)  25(28)  25(53)  14(67)   X(67)   1(68)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   6( 6)  16(22)   9(31)   X(31)   X(31)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   6(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 62  18(80)   1(81)   1(82)   1(83)   X(83)   X(83)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50 10  19(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  1   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34 40  26(66)   2(68)   1(69)   1(70)   X(70)   X(70)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  4  14(18)   2(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
LA PAZ         34  7  58(65)   9(74)   2(76)   2(78)   X(78)   X(78)
LA PAZ         50  1  20(21)  10(31)   X(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)
LA PAZ         64  X   7( 7)   6(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
LORETO         34  1  12(13)  42(55)  15(70)   7(77)   1(78)   X(78)
LORETO         50  X   1( 1)  12(13)  14(27)   4(31)   X(31)   X(31)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   2(17)
P PENASCO      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)
P PENASCO      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   4( 4)  10(14)  17(31)   2(33)   X(33)
HERMOSILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  16(23)  22(45)   2(47)   X(47)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   X(19)
BAHIA KINO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   2( 2)  11(13)  19(32)  16(48)   1(49)   X(49)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   9(15)   X(15)   X(15)
GUAYMAS        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   3( 3)  13(16)  11(27)   7(34)   X(34)   X(34)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
HUATABAMPO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  1   6( 7)  10(17)   5(22)   5(27)   X(27)   X(27)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  2  13(15)   9(24)   3(27)   3(30)   1(31)   X(31)
CULICAN        50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MAZATLAN       34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  5   2( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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