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Hurricane JIMENA


ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
HURRICANE JIMENA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  13                
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009               
2100 UTC MON AUG 31 2009                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JIMENA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
135 KTS...155 MPH...250 KM/HR.                                      
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE                
                                                                    
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES 
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.              
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS 
THAN 1 PERCENT.                                                     
                                                                    
                                                                    
      - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -      
                                                                    
VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120  
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       X       X       1       7      38      56
TROP DEPRESSION  X       X       X       4      17      30      28
TROPICAL STORM   X       X       1      32      38      28      15
HURRICANE       99      99      99      64      39       4       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        X       1       9      39      26       4       1
HUR CAT 2        X       3      22      16       8       X       X
HUR CAT 3        5      31      44       7       4       X       X
HUR CAT 4       82      58      21       2       1       X       X
HUR CAT 5       13       8       3       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND  130KT   125KT   115KT    85KT    50KT    50KT    30KT
                                                                    
                                                                    
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS             
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
YUMA AZ        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
ENSENADA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)
 
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  24(30)  20(50)   1(51)   1(52)
P ABREOJOS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  12(18)   X(18)   1(19)
P ABREOJOS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  2  44(46)  19(65)   2(67)   2(69)   X(69)   X(69)
CABO SAN LUCAS 50  X  10(10)  17(27)   1(28)   X(28)   X(28)   X(28)
CABO SAN LUCAS 64  X   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  2  33(35)  21(56)   2(58)   2(60)   X(60)   X(60)
SAN JOSE CABO  50  X   6( 6)  12(18)   1(19)   1(20)   X(20)   X(20)
SAN JOSE CABO  64  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
LA PAZ         34  1  12(13)  47(60)   8(68)   3(71)   X(71)   X(71)
LA PAZ         50  X   1( 1)  19(20)   8(28)   2(30)   X(30)   X(30)
LA PAZ         64  X   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
LORETO         34  X   1( 1)  18(19)  34(53)  14(67)   1(68)   X(68)
LORETO         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)  11(28)   X(28)   X(28)
LORETO         64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
P PENASCO      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   4(10)   1(11)
 
HERMOSILLO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)  16(22)   2(24)   1(25)
HERMOSILLO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BAHIA KINO     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  24(33)   3(36)   1(37)
BAHIA KINO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   1(11)   X(11)
BAHIA KINO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GUAYMAS        34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)  24(38)   2(40)   X(40)
GUAYMAS        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   1(11)   X(11)
GUAYMAS        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  13(18)  15(33)   X(33)   1(34)
HUATABAMPO     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
HUATABAMPO     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)  11(20)   7(27)   1(28)   X(28)
LOS MOCHIS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
LOS MOCHIS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
CULICAN        34  X   3( 3)  15(18)   8(26)   5(31)   X(31)   X(31)
CULICAN        50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
CULICAN        64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
MAZATLAN       34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34 80   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
ISLA SOCORRO   50 26   3(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
ISLA SOCORRO   64  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  1   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
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