Tropical Storm IGNACIO

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TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009

MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO HAS DISSIPATED
AND WHAT LITTLE REMAINS IS OCCURRING WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THERE HAVE BEEN NO NEW SCATTEROMETER PASSES OVER
THE CYCLONE AND DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  A CONTINUED GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION
IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS
AND THROUGH AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AIR MASS.  IGNACIO SHOULD WEAKEN
TO A DEPRESSION TOMORROW AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
24 HOURS.

THE FORWARD SPEED HAS INCREASED AND THE MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO
THE RIGHT AS COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY.  IGNACIO IS MOVING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH.  AS THE CYCLONE
BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW...A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE LEFT IS ANTICIPATED.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 23.4N 125.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 24.7N 126.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 26.3N 128.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 27.4N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 27.9N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 28.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     31/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
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