Tropical Storm ENRIQUE

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TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072009
800 PM PDT WED AUG 05 2009
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN
PRODUCING 15-20 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE HAS
WEAKENED A BIT AND ALSO HAS DRIFTED EASTWARD...TO A POSITION
BASICALLY DUE NORTH OF ENRIQUE.  THIS HAS CAUSED THE UPPER WIND
PATTERN OVER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DECREASE IN STRENGTH AND VEER
IN A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION.  AS A RESULT...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED.  VISIBLE AND ENHANCED BD-CURVE
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT ENRIQUE HAS DEVELOPED A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST WHILE MAINTAINING A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE.  A 2222Z TRMM OVERPASS ALSO DEPICTED A
PARTIAL BUT CLEARLY DEFINED CONVECTIVE RING PATTERN BENEATH THE
CDO.  BECAUSE OF THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE PRESENTATIONS...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS THAT REVEALED
NUMEROUS BELIEVABLE 45 KT WINDS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT
45 KT. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE IN WEAKENING ENRIQUE INTO
A REMNANT LOW IN 2 DAYS AND DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS...PRIMARILY DUE
TO COOLER WATER AND 20-30 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT WITH
ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM IN 72 HOURS.   
 
ENRIQUE IS MOVING MORE NORTHWESTWARD THIS EVENING...310/15.
HURRICANE FELICIAS PERIPHERAL WIND FIELD SEEMS TO BE INFLUENCING
THIS CHANGE IN MOTION...COMPARING TO THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE MID-UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE HAS NOT WEAKENED OR MOVED EASTWARD SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIFT IN MOTION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS BINARY INTERACTION WITH AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO A CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/0300Z 19.7N 124.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     06/1200Z 20.9N 126.4W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/0000Z 22.0N 129.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     07/1200Z 22.6N 132.2W    25 KT
 48HR VT     08/0000Z 23.0N 135.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
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