Hurricane CARLOS
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
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HURRICANE CARLOS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
1500 UTC WED JUL 15 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CARLOS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X 1 3 6 16
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 5 6 15 23 34
TROPICAL STORM 15 49 61 58 59 56 44
HURRICANE 85 50 33 35 23 15 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 80 43 29 28 19 12 5
HUR CAT 2 5 5 4 5 3 2 1
HUR CAT 3 1 1 1 2 1 X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 70KT 65KT 60KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 40KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 2(20)
10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4)
10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13)
15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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