Hurricane CARLOS

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HURRICANE CARLOS SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
1000 UTC TUE JUL 14 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 127.2W AT 14/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 127.2W AT 14/1000Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.7N 126.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z  9.8N 128.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.0N 130.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.2N 132.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 10.4N 134.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 11.0N 139.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 11.5N 144.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 11.5N 150.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.7N 127.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
 
 
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