Hurricane BILL
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
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HURRICANE BILL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
2100 UTC MON AUG 17 2009
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BILL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X X X X X 2
TROP DEPRESSION X X X X X 1 3
TROPICAL STORM 1 2 3 3 5 6 16
HURRICANE 99 98 97 97 95 93 80
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 20 20 17 16 17 19 28
HUR CAT 2 61 42 32 27 22 21 20
HUR CAT 3 17 31 37 35 34 31 19
HUR CAT 4 1 5 10 16 18 18 11
HUR CAT 5 1 1 2 3 4 3 2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 90KT 95KT 100KT 105KT 110KT 110KT 105KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
HARTFORD CT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 22(36)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) 2(13)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) 1( 7)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN/ROBERTS
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