Tropical Depression THREE
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 15 2009
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 3 3 2 1 1
TROP DEPRESSION 32 20 16 12 8 3 2
TROPICAL STORM 65 72 69 61 47 27 19
HURRICANE 2 6 13 24 44 68 77
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 5 10 19 29 35 27
HUR CAT 2 X X 2 3 10 19 21
HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 4 12 20
HUR CAT 4 X X X X 1 3 9
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 40KT 45KT 50KT 60KT 75KT 90KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PONCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
PONCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
SAN JUAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11)
SAN JUAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN JUAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15(20)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13)
AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17)
DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15)
MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12)
SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9)
SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12)
BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
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FORECASTER BEVEN
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