Tropical Depression ONE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012009
500 AM AST FRI MAY 29 2009
 
AFTER AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION THAT BEGAN AROUND 0400
UTC...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO
DECREASE AND MOVE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 0600 UTC WERE 2.5 AND 1.5 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE ESTIMATES.  THIS INTENSITY IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE SYSTEM AT 0102 UTC THAT SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 30 KT.
 
THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN WALL OF
THE GULF STREAM...AND THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER
COLDER WATER TODAY.  THEREFORE...IT APPEARS THAT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HAS PASSED.  MOST OF
THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE CYCLONE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS IT BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE NORTH.  THESE MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING BY 36
HOURS...HOWEVER THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF THE CIRCULATION BECOMES
POORLY DEFINED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT.
 
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING AROUND 070/13.  THE CYCLONE IS
BEING STEERED BY DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS AND CANADIAN...
ARE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      29/0900Z 38.9N  66.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/1800Z 40.2N  63.7W    30 KT
 24HR VT     30/0600Z 42.5N  59.1W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BRENNAN/BROWN
 
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