Hurricane FAUSTO

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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
200 PM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
FAUSTO CONTINUES DISPLAYING A RAGGED EYE BOTH IN THE INFRARED AND
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK
ESTIMATES REMAIN STEADY AT A 4.5 AT 18Z.  HOWEVER...ADT SUGGESTS A
SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER CYCLONE WITH A CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBER
ABOUT ONE HIGHER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE TECHNIQUES.  AN EARLIER AMSU
OVERPASS ANALYZED FAUSTO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 82 AND 87 KT FROM
THE CIMSS AND CIRA METHODS...RESPECTIVELY.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS A
BLEND OF THESE VALUES AT 80 KT.  IT IS OF NOTE THAT HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS WERE OBSERVED FROM THE MEXICAN AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION ON
SOCORRO ISLAND...THOUGH THESE MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE AS THE
STATION IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 35 M.
 
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT A HEADING OF 310
DEGREES AT 11 KT...THOUGH A POSSIBLE TURN TO THE LEFT IS IMPLIED BY
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES.  FAUSTO'S TRACK IS BEING DETERMINED
BY THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE AND
POSSIBLY INFLUENCED AS WELL BY THE DEEP SHORT-WAVE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE OF CALIFORNIA.  AS FAUSTO BEGINS TO DECAY IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS...IT SHOULD INCREASINGLY BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
OFF TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A BLEND
OF THE UKMET...GFS...GFDL...AND ECMWF MODELS AND IS QUITE CLOSE TO
THE FORECAST ISSUED PREVIOUSLY.

FAUSTO IS LIKELY TO BEGIN A RATHER QUICK DECAY AS IT WILL BE MOVING
OVER COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS...EVEN THOUGH
THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE
NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED UPON THE
LGEM...GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT
LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE AT DAY 4 OR 5.
 
A 1250Z QUIKSCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE GALE FORCE WIND RADII.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/2100Z 18.7N 113.4W    80 KT
 12HR VT     21/0600Z 19.7N 114.9W    70 KT
 24HR VT     21/1800Z 20.7N 117.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/0600Z 21.2N 119.3W    45 KT
 48HR VT     22/1800Z 21.5N 121.1W    35 KT
 72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.0N 124.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     24/1800Z 22.5N 128.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 
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